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Ruble Could Fall to 76/$ If U.S. Imposes Harsh Sanctions: BCS

Thursday, August 30, 2018 06:12 PM
By Anna Andrianova

(Bloomberg) --In the event U.S. imposes harsh sanctions on state banks, energy companies, new sovereign debt, ruble may weaken to 76 per dollar by end-2018, according to Vladimir Tikhomirov, chief economist at BCS Financial Group.
GDP would contract 0.3% in 2019 under that negative scenario; recession would end in 2019
Base case sees gradual rise in pressure “but key areas of economy unaffected” and moderate growth
Ruble may appreciate to 63 per dollar under base case
NOTE: Russia Seen Hiking Rates 100-150bps If Ruble Drops Sharply: BofA