There are some signs to support the idea that the worst might be over in the credit markets. After strenuous effort, banks have managed to find buyers for $9,4 billion of the $24 billion needed to finance the takeoverof First Data, a payments processor, by Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, private equity firm. According to JPMorgan, even the structured products that caused so much disquiet during the summer are moving again - $6,2 billion of collateralised-debt obligations were issued in the last week of September.

Risk appetite is resurfacing in currency markets.

The bullish case seems fairly simple. The American economy may be slowing but the rest of the world, particularly emerging markets, can make up for it.