В своих предыдущих заметках на полях я неявно сформулировал непротиворечивую концептуальную модель логики развития современных «развитых» стран, объясняющую низкую инфляцию на фоне огромного роста денежной массы. Эта модель состояла из двух логических цепочек:
рост финансовых рынков, особенно деривативов => рост номинальных доходов => рост денежной массы;
рост финансовых рынков, особенно деривативов => рост оборотов на финансовых рынках => рост скорости оборота денег => низкая инфляция.
В ходе обсуждения на Форуме жесткой и справедливой критике подверглась импликация:
рост финансовых инструментов, особенно деривативов => рост номинальных доходов.
Действительно, если рассмотреть кредитные деривативы (а, как мы увидим ниже, доля этих деривативов от всего рынка деривативов почти 90%), то мы убедимся, что их использование приводит лишь к перераспределению процентов по займу, выплачиваемому должником и не создает никакого дополнительного дохода сверх этой суммы. При этом дефолт должника приводит только к убыткам. Именно это и явилось ключом к видоизменению концепции. Как мы видим, в качестве дохода в нашей схеме фигурируют проценты по займам. А теперь посмотрим на два графика
И уже приводившийся в первой части график скорости оборота денег
Как мы видим, динамики этих графиков весьма и весьма похожи, вплоть до «посткризисной» коррекции. Таким образом, более логичная концепция должна состоять из двух видоизмененных цепочек:
рост долговой нагрузки небанковского сектора экономики+плюс рост кредитного плеча у банков => рост номинальных доходов => рост денежной массы;
рост долговой нагрузки небанковского сектора экономики+плюс рост кредитного плеча у банков => рост финансовых рынков, особенно рынка кредитных деривативов => рост оборотов на финансовых рынках => рост скорости оборота денег => низкая инфляция.
Чуть подробнее остановимся на подимпликации:
рост долговой нагрузки небанковского сектора экономики+плюс рост кредитного плеча у банков => рост финансовых рынков, особенно рынка кредитных деривативов => рост оборотов на финансовых рынках;
Казалось бы – зачем в этой цепочке деривативы? А вот тут то мы и получаем то, о чем писалось в предыдущей части – завлечение инвестора на финансовый рынок. Действительно, купив облигацию, как правило, со ставкой, привязанной либо к изменчивому LIBORу, либо к ставке ФРС, с помощью деривативов на ставку, инвестор имеет возможность сделать ставку дохода по облигации стабильной, хотя и ниже первоначальной ставки. Кроме того, отдав часть доходности продавцу CDS, инвестор может получить «страховку от дефолта». В общем, появляется куча возможностей прогнозировать будущий доход при условии конечно отсутствия краха всей системы. Кроме того, банки, выпуская «ценные бумаги», например, prime, subprime, CDO и CLO делают конечными кредиторами инвесторов, а сами получают, как часть дохода от выданных кредитов (пусть и небольшую), так и «живые» деньги для выдачи новых. Т. е. деривативы создают обратную взаимосвязь
рост финансовых рынков, особенно рынка кредитных деривативов => рост долговой нагрузки небанковского сектора экономики+плюс рост кредитного плеча у банков.
И оборот денег при наличии этой взаимосвязи естественно еще возрастает. И в итоге мы получаем «самораскручивающуюся» систему не только с прямыми, но и обратными связями, способствующую росту номинальных доходов при относительно низкой инфляции.
О CDO и CLO надо сказать отдельно. Цитата из М. Делягина, которую я привел в предыдущем сообщении, как правильно заметили коллеги на Форуме, оказалась совершенно неверной. Это вовсе не «деривативы от деривативов», как написал М. Делягин, а просто деривативы для получения банками «живых» денег для раскручивания спирали кредитного плеча: Collateralized Debt Obligation - CDO (Облигация, обеспеченная долговыми обязательствами, - ООДО) Ценная бумага, обеспеченная пулом из различных типов долговых инструментов, который может включать продаваемые на свободном рынке корпоративные облигации, выданные институциональными кредиторами кредиты или транши ценных бумаг, выпущенных в рамках сделок по секьюритизации. Collateralized Loan Obligation - CLO (Облигация, обеспеченная кредитами, - ООК) Ценная бумага, обеспеченная пулом кредитов, выданных корпоративным заемщикам институциональными кредиторами, обычно коммерческими банками.
Но вернемся к основной теме. В результате описанного выше процесса долги в США достигли астрономических сумм . Среди приведенных в ссылке выделяется и, на первый взгляд, вызывает удивление, цифра $52 Trillion in social security/medicare obligations. Однако в рамках нашей концепции она становится совершенно понятной – эти фонды не участвуют в создании номинального дохода банков и корпораций, а их выплаты, во-многом, направлены, на создание конечного потребления, т. е. обладают сильной инфляционной составляющей. Поэтому именно в них и сосредотачиваются огромные дефициты, если принять за данность описанную выше «самораскручивающуюся» концепцию. А масштаб их долга просто показывает, как далеко в своем развитии зашла модель современного общества «развитых» стран.
Отметим, что видоизмененная под воздействием дискуссии на Форуме концепция не влияет на наши выводы, которые сознательно были сделаны в менее категоричной форме, чем подразумевает концеция.
Также критике на Форуме подверглась приведенная мною цифра оборота внебиржевых деривативов в 1,86 квадраллиона долларов со ссылкой на DTCC. Это было моей ошибкой. Сама цифра действительно присутствует на сайте DTCC, как цифра проведенных транзакций в 2008-м году, но при детальном рассмотрении выяснилось, что эта цифра не имеет отношения к деривативам. Львиную долю этих транзакций составляет оборот по государственным ценным бумагам США (1,04 квадраллиона долларов), оборот по акциям, корпоративным и муниципальным облигациям и ETF (315,1 триллиона долларов) и оборот по долговым бумагам, обеспеченным залогом (111,3 триллиона долларов). А статистика по оборотам деривативов представлена Bank for International Settlements (BIS). По его данным получается:
Биржевой рынок деривативов
Фьючерсы
2008 - 1,54 квадраллиона долларов «по номиналу» (из них оборот в Северной Америке (считай в США) 847,4 трлн), из них фьючерсы на ставку 1,39 квадраллиона (в Северной Америке - 774,44 трлн)
2009 - 1,13 квадраллиона долларов «по номиналу» (из них оборот в Северной Америке 598,98 трлн), из них фьючерсы на ставку 1,02 квадраллиона (в Северной Америке - 543,95 трлн)
Опционы
2008 – 664,83 триллиона долларов (из них оборот в Северной Америке 322,36 трлн), из них опционы на ставку 526,63 триллиона (в Северной Америке - 275,45 трлн)
2009 - 533,74 триллиона долларов (из них оборот в Cеверной Америке 216,39 трлн ), из них опционы на ставку 434,6 триллиона (в Северной Америке - 188,44 трлн)
Внебиржевой рынок деривативов США
2008 - 1,23 квадраллиона долларов «по номиналу» (из них 844,2 трлн деривативы на ставку, 99,29 трлн - CDS) или 52,75 триллиона «по деньгам» (из них на ставку 27,27 трлн, 8,3 трлн – CDS).
2009 - 1,22 квадраллиона долларов «по номиналу» (из них 886,99 трлн деривативы на ставку, 68,74 трлн - CDS) или 46,96 триллиона «по деньгам» (из них на ставку 29,49 трлн, 4,79 трлн – CDS).
На фоне эти цифр внебиржевой рынок деривативов остального мира рассматривать нет смысла, так как его обороты составили 107,18 трлн «по номиналу» в 2008-м году и 97,97 трлн в 2009-м, что составляет не более 1/10 от внебиржевого рынка США.
Как мы видим, на рынке биржевых деривативов доля США около 50%, а внебиржевых - свыше 90% и биржевой рынок деривативов по своим масштабам на 80 с лишним процентов превосходит внебиржевой, причем последний сосредоточен, в-основном, в США. Также мы видим, что доля кредитных деривативов составляет около 90% от всего рынка деривативов.
Таким образом, несмотря на ошибку, реальные цифры оказались по порядку близки к приведенным, и потому также не оказывают серьезного влияния на сделанные ранее выводы.
В конце этой заметки я хотел бы высказать благодарность всем, принявшим участие в дискуссии на Форуме, так как их замечания способствовали более точному и корректному обоснованию ранее сформулированных мной выводов, а также исправлению неточностей, которые я допустил, слепо доверившись цифрам, приводимым в цитировавшихся статьях.
Уважаемый Александр.
Все таки на вопрос "что делать?" ответ необходимо искать. Иначе такое исследование становится пустым занятием, неужели только "ради любви к искусству"? Кризисы как правило наступают, когда человечество впадает в иллюзию и эта иллюзия сталкивается с реальностью (реальными законами), чем глубже и сильнее иллюзия - тем более жесткий кризис. Теория, что природа денег - это долг (так называемые кредитные деньги), и чем больше совокупный долг, тем больше совокупное богатство мне кажется абсурдной (возможно из-за отсутствия финансового образования). Но идея, что из ничего можно создать нечто, по-моему просто противоречит всей физической реальности. Вы действительно верите во всесилие виртуального финансового мира? Или все же финансовые институты ответят за игры с деривативами? Или может быть возможен такой вариант, что активные участники этого рынка соберутся в одном месте, сядут за стол, выяснять кто кому сколько должен и просто взаимозачетом погасят большую часть созданного долга?
Чтобы понять "что делать?" надо изучить взаимосвязи и их устойчивость. Ведь реальный кризис, а маленькое торможение развития, наступает тогда, когда рушится одно из звеньев в работающей цепи и нет возможности его замены. пока же история показывает, что наращивание долга можно уравновешивать противовесами в виде финансового рынка, производства физических товаров в странах типа Китая и госдотациями сельхозпроизводителям. Поэтому вопрос глобального кризиса - это вопрос устойчивости этих противовесов, а вопрос предотвращения кризиса - это заблаговременное предсказание того, что один из противовесов вот-вот сломается и замене подлежать не будет. Пока же эти противовесы устойчиво работают - зачем менять современный автомобиль на пусть и надежную телегу?
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[h2]The Popularity of Earth Tones[/h2]
[p]Neutrality has redefined elegance this year. The most popular embroidered blouses are appearing in muted, natural tones that highlight the feel of the stitching rather than competing with it. [/p]
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[/list]
[h2]The Return of Deep, Atmospheric Colors[/h2]
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SG Vape Delivery Shop is a leading vape retailer in Singapore, specializing in 100% authentic disposable vapes, vape pods, vape devices, and vape accessories. The store strictly excludes K Pods, providing only legal vape products.
Explore a wide collection of disposable vapes from trusted manufacturers including Lana, Vapetape, RELX, Elf Bar, and ONEM. Each device is tested for long-lasting satisfaction.
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The website also features informational pages and an FAQ, covering topics such as shipping times, international shipping, payment methods, parcel tracking, shipping costs, order cancellation, and customer support.
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Receive discounts when ordering more devices. Orders of 6 pieces or more receive $5 OFF. Orders of 11 pieces or more receive $10 OFF. Customers receive free shipping for orders above $300.
Top-selling products include Vapetape Offgrid Reload, Vapetape Engage, Lana Ultra II 16000 Puffs, Lana Touch 32000 Puffs, Lana Pen Plus 9000 Puffs, ELFBAR Ice King 40000 Puffs, Snowwolf 16000 Puffs, RELX Creator 22000 Puffs, and Vapetape Offgrid 12000 Puffs. These devices deliver excellent battery life, rich vapor production, and excellent flavor quality.
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Best-selling products include Lana Ultra 2 16000 Puffs, RELX Infinity Pod, Elf Bar Ice King Pro 45000 Puffs, Lana Pen Plus 9000 Puffs, and ONEM Pod 15000 Puffs. These vape devices are known for smooth draws and rich taste.
New products include Vapetape Engage, Elf Bar Ice King Pro 45000 Puffs, Lana Pix 20000 Puffs, ONEM Pod 15000 Puffs, RELX Creator 22000 Puffs, and Elf Bar Raya S1 15000 Puffs. Selected products are offered at discounted prices.
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Singapore Vape Delivery is a Singapore-based vape shop serving customers across Singapore with online vape products. The store focuses on product quality, responsive customer support, and fast door-to-door shipping.
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The store offers a wide range of vape products, including various vape devices and accessories through a simple online ordering system. Reliable delivery and easy online shopping are among the main benefits of the service.
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An FAQ section explains common customer questions, including online ordering, payments, shipping times, minimum purchases, and customer support.
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<a href=https://www.australiatobacconisthub.com>Australia Tobacconist Hub</a> Australia Tobacconist Hub online store is an online tobacco shop serving customers with a large tobacco selection throughout Australia. The store specializes in affordable prices, dependable service, and fast shipping, allowing customers to order tobacco products with ease.
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The company provides fast and discreet tobacco delivery throughout Australia. The company emphasizes quick processing, with efficient service and customer satisfaction.
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The store promotes affordable tobacco products while maintaining a focus on product quality and dependable service. Buyers seeking popular cigarette brands have access to a wide product selection.
The platform also features content related to smoking awareness. It explains that stopping smoking can improve health over time, recognizing the long-term benefits associated with smoking cessation.
