...исследование от 9 апреля...

[bestpractice.bmj.com]

Case fatality rate

The overall global case fatality rate is currently approximately 5.85% based on World Health Organization
data as of 8 April 2020. The case fatality rate varies between countries; for example, it is currently higher
in countries such as Italy and Spain, and lower in countries such as Germany and Australia.[311] It is
important to note that daily death counts need to be interpreted with caution. The number of deaths reported
on a particular day may not accurately reflect the number of deaths from the previous day due to delays
associated with reporting deaths. This makes it difficult to know whether deaths are falling over time in the
short term.[312]

The overall case fatality rate in China has been estimated to be 2.3% (0.9% in patients without comorbidities)
based on a large case series of 72,314 reported cases from 31 December 2019 to 11 February 2020 (mainly
among hospitalised patients).[6] However, another study estimates the case fatality rate in China to be lower
at 1.38% (after adjusting the crude estimate for censoring, demography, and under-ascertainment).[313]

Estimated case fatality rates should be treated with extreme caution as the situation is evolving rapidly, and
case fatality rates are often overestimated at the onset of outbreaks owing to increased case detection of
patients with severe disease.[314] For example, at the start of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic the case
fatality rate varied from 0.1% to 5.1% depending on the country, but ended up being around 0.02%. Other
factors that can affect case fatality rates include testing rates in each country, delays between symptom
onset and death, and local factors (e.g., patient demographics, availability and quality of health care, other
endemic diseases). For example, the case fatality rate in Italy may be higher than in other countries because
Italy has the second oldest population in the world, the highest rates of antibiotic resistance deaths in
Europe, and a higher incidence of smoking. The way COVID-19 related deaths are identified and reported
in Italy may have also resulted in an overestimation of cases. Patients who die ‘with’ COVID-19 and patients
who die ‘from’ COVID-19 are both counted towards the death toll[315] [316]

Estimates that take into account asymptomatic patients and mild cases who have not been tested put the
case fatality rate in the total population at around 0.125%; however, this estimate does not take into account
exceptional cases (e.g., the current situation in Italy).[315] The case fatality rate among people on board the
Diamond Princess cruise ship, a unique situation where a more accurate assessment of the case fatality rate
in a quarantined population can be made, was 0.99%. However, it should be noted that the rate in a younger,
healthier population could be lower.[317]

The overall case fatality rate appears to be less than that reported for severe acute respiratory syndrome
coronavirus (SARS) (10%) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) (37%).[18] Despite the lower case
fatality rate, COVID-19 has so far resulted in more deaths than both SARS and MERS combined.[318]